xyz
PARTNER MERYTORYCZNY NARZĘDZIA: Joanna Czerska
Analiza rotacji czyli zachowania Klienta zapasu
Analiza rotacji służy głównie zrozumieniu zachowań klienta i wykorzystania ich do zarządzenia poziomem zapasu.
Pamiętaj, że każdy typ zapasu (wyroby gotowe, półprodukty, materiały) ma innych klientów. Dlatego czytaj niniejszy rozdział mając to zastrzeżenie na uwadze.
Przygotowując dane do analizy rotacji półwyrobów i materiałów korzystaj z historii wydań magazynowych. Jedynie dla wyrobów gotowych posłuż się zamówieniami klienta końcowego
Zachowanie klienta, które ma wpływ na zapas można określić trzema kategoriami (patrz Rysunek 1): częstość zamawiania, ilość zamawiana oraz wartość zamawianego towaru. Te trzy kategorie złożone razem pozwalają podjąć decyzję o tym w jaki sposób zarządzać zapasem:
- BTO – buy to order – kupuj pod zamówienie
- BTS – buy to stock – kupuj na zapas
- MTO – make to order – produkuj na zamówienie
- MTS – make to stock – produkuj na zapas
Analiza rotacji pozwala nałożyć dodatkowe kryteria eliminujące produkty/półwyroby/materiały z listy tego co utrzymujemy na zapasie, a także wskazuje kierunki optymalizacji zachowań po stronie klientów zapasu.
Terminy definiowane przez Klienta
Przystępując do analizy rotacji powinniśmy ustalić jaki cel spełnić ma nasz zapas tj. czy ma zapewnić ciągłość realizacji zleceń wg terminów żądanych przez Klienta czy też uzgodnionych z Klientem w toku przyjęcia zamówienia.
Jeśli zależy nam na tym, by dzięki zapasowi realizować zamówienia zgodnie z datą życzoną przez klienta – w analizie musimy posłużyć się tzw. datą życzoną (z ang: wished date), czyli datą określoną przez Klienta w swoim zamówieniu.
Jeśli naszym celem jest realizacja zamówień zgodnie z datą potwierdzoną klientowi, ponieważ nasi klienci składają zamówienia w taki sposób, że daty życzone w rzeczywistości nie stanowią odzwierciedlenia ich rzeczywistych potrzeb lub nasza organizacja nie jest gotowa na realizację zamówień wg dat życzonych. W takiej sytuacji posłużymy się tzw. pierwszą[1] datą potwierdzoną (z ang.: promised date).
W analizie rotacji dość duży kłopot stanowi pozyskanie danych służących określeniu na kiedy klient chciał towar lub pierwszej daty potwierdzonej. Problem ma swoje źródło z niewłaściwych ustawień wdrożeniowych systemu ERP, które pozwalają nadpisywać daty po ich modyfikacji. Takie dane niestety nie dadzą nam w pełni właściwych wskazówek. W toku moich wdrożeń zwróciłam uwagę, że niektóre systemy ERP przechowują wprowadzane daty lecz są one niewidoczne dla użytkowników. Z pomocą informatyków udaje się je wydobyć. Jeśli chcesz pracować na właściwych danych i zredukować swoje zapasy zadbaj o to by mieć właściwe daty.
XYZ
„XYZ” to metoda analizy częstości generowania zapotrzebowania[2] na konkretny produkt przez Klienta zapasu. Metoda ta służy ustaleniu które z wyrobów będą stanowić ryzyko dla zapasu, a które z nich można utrzymywać na zapasie bez lęku, że staną się ciężarem. Z uwagi na specyfikę stosowanych przeze mnie kryteriów rotacji (brak wystarczającej liczby literek) na potrzeby objaśnień będę nazywała dalej tę analizę „Małe abc”.
„Małe abc” polega na przeanalizowaniu historii zamówień klienta (np. w postaci pobrań z magazynu). Analizy tej dokonuje się w podziałce czasowej odpowiadającej systematyce planowania. Jeśli planujemy codziennie – dane analizujemy codziennie, jeśli planujemy raz na tydzień – dane analizujemy w podziałce tygodniowej (por. tabela 1)
Litery „abc” definiują częstość pojawiania się zamówień na dany produkt. Definicja literaturowa jest następująca:
- Runners (z ang: biegacze) ; wyroby pojawiające się bardzo często w zamówieniach; zwykle w każdej podziałce planistycznej,
- Repeaters (z ang: powtarzacze); wyroby pojawiające się ze stosunkowo stałą częstotliwością,
- Strangers (z ang: obcy); wyroby.
W swojej praktyce wykorzystuję rozszerzone i doprecyzowane definicje, które ułatwiają mi późniejszą analizę i podejmowanie decyzji:
- pojawia się w każdej podziałce
- liczba wystąpień zamówień w analizowanym okresie/liczba podziałek czasowych w analizowanym okresie <=1,2
- pojawia się w co drugiej podziałce
- 1,2< liczba wystąpień zamówień w analizowanym okresie/liczba podziałek czasowych w analizowanym okresie <=2,2
- pojawia się w co trzeciej podziałce
- 2,2<liczba wystąpień zamówień w analizowanym okresie/liczba podziałek czasowych w analizowanym okresie <=3,2
- pojawia się w co czwartej podziałce
- 3,2<liczba wystąpień zamówień w analizowanym okresie/liczba podziałek czasowych w analizowanym okresie <=4,2
- pojawia się rzadziej niż w co czwartej podziałce jednak systematycznie
- nieprzewidywalne występowanie; zwykle dotyczy wyrobów:
- zamierających
- „żywych trupów” – wyrobów które utrzymujemy w sprzedaży z niewiadomych powodów, a zapotrzebowanie na nie jest sporadyczne
- nowo wprowadzanych dla których brak historii[3]
Jak widać z porównania metody literaturowej i stosowanej przeze mnie praktyki moje wyroby „a” to runners’y, wyroby „b”-„e” repeaters’y, a „f” to strangers’y.
Zastosowanie większej liczby liter pozwala m.in. na:
- Wyskalowanie ryzyka dla zapasu. Wyroby z grup „d” i „e” mimo swojej powtarzalności będą zalegały na magazynie pogarszając rotację zapasu. Z kolei wyroby z grupy „f” trzeba systematycznie obserwować by badać zmianę ich zachowań i w razie długiego czasu spoczynku zgłosić je do działu marketingu z wnioskiem o usunięcie z portfela lub promocyjną wyprzedaż zalegających zapasów (maksymalnie do poziomu tych zapasów). Wyroby z grup „a” i „b” są wyrobami bezpiecznymi, które bez martwienia się o ryzyko mogę umieścić na zapasie lub produkować w systemie stała ilość w stałym cyklu.
- Identyfikację przyczyn niskiej rotowalności. Szczególnie zwracamy uwagę na wyroby z grupy „d”. Jeśli zamówienia pojawiają się raz na miesiąc wskazuje to na praktykę działu zaopatrzenia po stronie klienta zwaną „zamawiaj raz w miesiącu”. Jeśli wyrób „d” wpływa znacząco na obciążenie produkcji powodując okresową nadwyżkę zapotrzebowania nad zdolnościami wytwórczymi staram się namówić klienta do częstszego składania zamówień.
- Ustalenia mechanizmu dzielenia prognozy miesięcznej na potrzeby skalkulowania prognozowanego zapasu. Dla wyrobów „a” dzielimy prognozę na tyle podziałek ile mamy okresów planistycznych, dla wyrobów „b” na połowę okresów planistycznych itd. W ten sposób zapewnisz, że zapas ustalony dla wyrobu pokryje jednorazowe zapotrzebowanie. Często popełniany jest błąd w postaci „prognozę na wszystkie wyroby dzielimy na cztery”.
Podsumowanie analizy abc może wyglądać następująco (patrz Tabela 2).
W zależności od specyfiki przedsiębiorstwa struktura ta może przedstawiać się różnorodnie. W przypadku produkcji seryjnej wraz ze wzrostem grupy (a → f) liczba pozycji asortymentowych w grupie powinna maleć. W przypadku produkcji pod zamówienie liczba pozycji asortymentowych w grupie „a” będzie niska gdy będziemy patrzeć na rotację wyrobów i półwyrobów. Natomiast dla materiałów struktura powinna być zbliżona do produkcji seryjnej. Jeśli jest inaczej, oznacza to konieczność pracy nad standaryzacją wykorzystywanych materiałów w celu poprawy efektywności kosztowej zakupów.
Jeśli w grupie „f” występuje znaczna liczba pozycji asortymentowych istnieje duże prawdopodobieństwo, że nieprawidłowo zarządzamy portfelem naszych produktów i nie dokonujemy jego systematycznej selekcji. Taka sytuacja skutkować będzie obniżeniem rotacji zapasów oraz kosztami utylizacji zapasów.
Analizując podsumowanie z Tabeli 2, możemy wyciągnąć następujące wnioski:
- W grupach „a”-„d” struktura zapasu w zakresie liczby produktów jest prawidłowa; jednak w grupie „c” i wyższych mamy problem z rotacją. Prawdopodobnie spowodowane jest to zbyt dużymi partiami uruchomieniowymi lub produkcją pod mało wiarygodną prognozę.
- Duży udział grupy „f” wskazuje na problem z zarządzaniem portfelem produktów – należy zweryfikować proces zarządzania portfelem.
- Znaczący udział grupy „e” wskazuje, że aż 15% produktów prawdopodobnie znajduje się w fazie schyłkowej (ryzyko przeterminowania zapasu) – sprawdzić przyczyny niskiej rotacji zapasu w grupie „e”.
Duże ABC
Analiza „dużego ABC” to analiza ilościowa (patrz Rysunek 2).
Wg literatury bazuje ona na zasadzie Pareto i ocenie udziału konkretnego produktu w całkowitej sprzedaży ilościowej. Ma ona za zadanie wskazać wyroby o:
- największej rotacji ilościowej, które będą podnosiły znacząco stany magazynowe
- najmniejszej rotacji, które będą w konflikcie z minimalnymi partiami uruchomieniowymi, co skutkować może przeterminowaniami na magazynie.
Na podstawie tej analizy i w powiązaniu z analizą „małe abc” definiuje się wymagania dotyczące elastyczności produkcji wskazując wymaganą liczbę przezbrojeń.
Analiza Pareto opiera się na ocenie udziału narastająco danego indeksu (patrz Tabela 3) w ogólnym obrocie ilościowym wszystkich wyrobów. Analizę tę wykonuje się zwykle dla okresu 6 lub 12 miesięcy jednak każde przedsiębiorstwo powinno ustalić własny okres analizy, w którym struktura zapotrzebowania jest stosunkowo stabilna.
Oczywiście zasada Pareto mówiąca o tym, że 20% zdarzeń generuje 80% skutków – a w naszym przypadku analizy dużego ABC, że nie więcej niż 30% wyrobów generuje 60% obrotu ilościowego jest prawdziwa. Jednak z punktu widzenia podejmowania właściwych decyzji dotyczących zarządzania zapasem, mało precyzyjna. Dlatego ja wykorzystuję nieco inną kategoryzację ABC opartą o kryterium minimalnej partii uruchomieniowej:
- Wyroby, na które zamówienia w okresie planistycznym przekraczają znacząco minimalną partię uruchomieniową
- Wyroby, na które zamówienia w okresie planistycznym są zbliżone do minimalnej partii uruchomieniowej
- Wyroby, na które zamówienia w okresie planistycznym są znacznie poniżej minimalnej partii uruchomieniowej.
Kryterium partii uruchomieniowej mówi bowiem, czy z punktu widzenia produkcji zamawiane ilości są duże czy też nie. Dzięki takiej kategoryzacji ABC oraz powiązaniu jej z „małym abc” możliwe jest podjęcie decyzji o zasadach planowania wyrobów, które będą miały znaczący wpływ na poziom zapasu (patrz Tabela 4).
Uwaga! Powyższa tabela jest opracowana dla konkretnego przypadku
i może służyć Czytelnikowi jako referencja. Każdorazowo należy rozważyć możliwe opcje zarządzania zapasem specyficzne dla przedsiębiorstwa.
Co oznacza produkuj w stałych partiach w każdej podziałce planistycznej? Oznacza to, że produkujemy ilości niezależnie od rzeczywistego zapotrzebowania. Ilości te wyznaczamy w oparciu o analizę historii i prognozy zapotrzebowania i są one niezmienne przez dłuższy okres czasu (do momentu, w którym przeciętny popyt na wyrób nie ulegnie znaczącemu wzrostowi lub spadkowi powodując, że ustalony bufor (zapas) stanie się niewystarczający). W każdym okresie planistycznym mamy grupę wyrobów Aa, Ab, Ac, Ba, Bb, które produkujemy zawsze w takich samych ilościach, zużywając takie same ilości materiałów.
Ale co w takim razie ze zmiennością zapotrzebowania? Przecież klient nie zamawia zawsze tyle samo! Do tego służyć nam będzie zapas tzw. bufor heijuki (=zapas). On będzie miał za zadanie pochłonąć zmienność zapotrzebowania. My jednak będziemy mieli pewność, że produkcja zawsze będzie miała materiał do produkcji i w zdefiniowanej podziałce czasu wyprodukuje wymagane produkty.
Co oznacza produkuj w minimalnych partiach w stałych podziałkach planistycznych bazując na zużyciu? Oznacza to wykorzystanie systemu kanban do zarządzania zapasem. W każdej podziałce planistycznej sprawdzamy różnicę pomiędzy stanem zapasu a zapasem maksymalnym (patrz Zasady kalkulacji zapasu opisane w Rozdziale 4), jeśli różnica stanowi minimalną partię produkcyjną lub więcej – uruchamiamy produkcję w ilości brakującej do zapasu maksymalnego.
Co oznacza produkuj w zmiennych partiach bazując na Re-Order Point (z ang: ROP – punkcie ponownego zamawiania)? Oznacza to wykorzystanie systemu MRP lub systemu kanban do zarządzania za pasem z wykorzystaniem mechanizmu zapasu bezpiecznego na poziomie Re-order Point[4]. Z jednym bardzo istotnym zastrzeżeniem: przy osiągnięciu poziomu ponownego zamawiania należy rozważyć wielkość partii uruchomieniowej bazując na prognozie lub historycznym zużyciu i zdefiniować jej wielkość w taki sposób by nie przekraczała 3-6 miesięcy zapotrzebowania (okres definiujemy dla każdej grupy ABCabc indywidualnie). Niezależnie bowiem od efektywności produkcji minimalnej partii uruchomieniowej, z punktu widzenia firmy, nie jest efektywnym uruchamianie produkcji w ilościach większych niż półroczny zapas blokując w ten sposób możliwość realizacji bieżących zamówień i mrożąc gotówkę w zapasie
Co oznacza produkuj na zamówienie? Oznacza wykorzystanie klasycznego MRP bez zdefiniowanego poziomu minimalnego partii uruchomieniowej. Produkujemy wyłącznie zamówioną ilość. Z uwagi na fakt, że przy tym typie wyrobów istnieje ryzyko pojawienia się dużej liczby zamówień na produkty f, w planowaniu ustala się maksymalną liczbę takich produktów w planie produkcji w danym okresie planistycznym. Pozwala to na ochronę procesu wytwórczego przez zwiększoną liczbę przezbrojeń. Może skutkować jednak wydłużeniem czasu realizacji zamówienia.
Dodatkowym kryterium pomocnym w ustaleniu sposobu zarządzania zapasem jest przeciętna wielkość zamówienia porównana z minimalną partią uruchomieniową (MPU):
- MTO – wyroby z grupy „strangers” dla MPU < zamówień
- ROP – wyroby z grupy „strangers” dla MPU > zamówień
I tu z pomocą przychodzi analiza wartościowa XYZ. Ponieważ wyrobom z grupy Cf o niskiej marżowości warto wydłużać czas realizacji zamówień, choćby po to by zniechęcić klientów do ich kupowania.
Podsumowanie analizy abcABC może wyglądać następująco (patrz Tabele 5-8).
Jak widać na powyższym przykładzie analogicznie do rozdrobnienia kryteriów dla „małego abc” i w „dużym ABC” zdefiniowano 5 grup. Grupy te oparto o kryterium wielkości i wielokrotności obecnej minimalnej partii uruchomieniowej. Interpretując wynik analizy abcABC można go skomentować następująco:
- zapotrzebowanie o dużym rozdrobnieniu (grupa „E” stanowi prawie 60% wszystkich produktów, a w połączeniu z grupą D aż 80%) wymaga produkcji w małych partiach. Biorąc pod uwagę wyniki przedstawione na Rysunku 17 produkcja odbywa się w dużych partiach co skutkuje bardzo dużym zapasem w grupie E,
- analiza ABC potwierdza wstępny wniosek z analizy abc związany z niedostosowaną do potrzeb rynku wielkością partii uruchomieniowych,
- aż 20% wyrobów znajduje się w grupie Ef (małe ilości zamawiane w nieprzewidywalnym terminie). Grupa Ef generuje również najwyższą wartość zapasu. Niezbędna analiza portfela wyrobów,
- biorąc pod uwagę bardzo niską rotację w grupach C-D oraz rosnącą wartość zapasu należy sprawdzić mechanizm prognozowania zapotrzebowania służącego definiowaniu zapasów.
Analiza rotacji abc i ABC powinna być stałym elementem comiesięcznych analiz. Należy bowiem śledzić trendy zachowań produktów i ich przesunięcia pomiędzy grupami. Spadek wyrobu z grupy „a” do grupy „b” i niżej może wskazywać na pojawiające się stopniowo problemy z rotowalnością (sprzedażą) produktu i z odpowiednim wyprzedzeniem pozwolić na podjęcie działań zapobiegających przeterminowaniu zapasu.
[1] Pierwsza data potwierdzona to data wprowadzona do systemu wraz z pierwszym potwierdzeniem zamówienia. Ponieważ dokonuje się modyfikacji dat z uwagi na problemy w realizacji zamówień pierwsza data musi być datą niezmienną
[2] Zwróć uwagę, że używam sformułowania „generowania zapotrzebowania” a nie „zapotrzebowania”. Z mojego doświadczenia wynika, że termin generowania zapotrzebowania może nie mieć związku z realnym zapotrzebowaniem. A jeśli tak jest to jest to punkt do optymalizacji zapasu.
[3] Brak historii oznacza całkowicie nowy wyrób; jeśli mamy do czynienia ze zmodyfikowanym wyrobem należy podpiąć historię jego poprzednika w celu dokonania poprawnej analizy rotacji
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